Well, here I am writing another peace on hope and your Iowa Hawkeyes. Hope is back in town after Matt Gatens absolutely went off during the last two games. Before I move on to Iowa’s tourney chances, I have to say something about Mr. Gatens.
What Matt Gatens has done the last two games is nothing short of miraculous. I know this won’t go down as one of the most memorable seasons in Iowa Basketball history, but his last two games will. This will be one of those things we talk about years from now, hopefully after Iowa has turned the corner and become a perennial tournament team again. Gatens wasn’t just good, he was outstanding. He not only hit tough shots, he hit nearly every shot. He wasn’t exactly taking layups either, as almost every shot attempt has been from the elbow or outside. Badgers were practically in his jersey, and he kept hitting nothing but net. His 12 consecutive 3’s are an Iowa record, and one that we likely won’t see again. It was truly great to see someone who has been so loyal have such special performances in front of raucous crowds at Carver. Matt deserved that. And earned it, too.
But back to the team and the tournament. Let’s talk the Hawks’ chances.
I gotta admit, they aren’t good. Iowa’s RPI is currently 126, which is not good considering only 68 teams get to dance. The worst RPI ever to get an at-large bid was 99, done by New Mexico in 1999. I should also say I think this is not going to happen. We’ll take a look because we don’t have shit else to do, but really Iowa dug their own grave in the non-conference schedule. But it’s not depressing news I’m selling today, it’s hope. So here we go.
Let’s start with the RPI. The RPI is some lunacy that has been used for years to help judge teams and their worthiness of getting in tournament. RPI stands for Rating Percentage Index, but it might as well be called the Rarely Pertinent Index if you ask me. It’s calculated by valuing the teams’ winning percentage as 25%, the opponents’ winning percentage as 50%, and the opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage as the remaining 25%. See a problem? Me too. You only really need to play great teams in good conferences to get a good RPI, since 75% of your rating is based on what others do, and not how you do against them. Makes perfect sense, right? No? Okay, we’re on the same page then.
The other BS thing about the RPI is that margin of victory doesn’t matter. So if you play Duke and get housed by 40, that’s actually way way better than beating NIU by 33. Because of this, Iowa’s non-conference schedule is killing them, as Creighton and ISU are the only RPI top 50 teams they played.
But for any chance of Iowa making the tourney, they have to win out. Have to. Can’t go lose at Illinois and then win the next two. You have to win them all. Doing that would make you 18-13 overall and 10-8 in the Big Ten, which is widely considered the best conference this year. You’ll also need some help in the form of Purdue getting beat, which they should. Purdue still has to play at Michigan and at Indiana, and losing those would drop them below Iowa. That means the Hawks would finish 7th in the Big Ten (Possibly 6th if Indiana can lose two more; not likely but possible).
But who are we comparing Iowa’s resume to? ESPN’s Joe Linardi is an expert on all of this, and he has the following teams as his last four in: Xavier, Texas, Northwestern, and Colorado State.
Xavier is 17-10 and 8-5 in the Atlantic 10, and they are 53rd in the RPI. They’ve only played 1 ranked team all year, and they beat them; that was on the road at Vandy. But they do have some other pretty impressive wins, beating Purdue, Cincinnati, and Georgia all at home. But they’re the fourth place team in the A10, and I don’t get how 4 bids go to that league. Or maybe UMASS gets left out.
Texas is 55 in the RPI and stands at 17-11 and 7-8 in the Big 12. They haven’t beaten a ranked team all year. Their best wins are home victories over Temple and Kansas State. Their worst loss is Oregon State, and they just lost a bad one to Okie State. Other than that, all their losses are pretty respectable. They’ve lost their last two games, and close the year at Kansas.
Northwestern is 16-11 and 6-9 in the Big Ten. I don’t see what’s so special about their resume, yet they have an RPI of 47. They’ve defeated exactly 1 ranked team all year (Michigan State). They won a tourney early in the year, beating LSU, Tulsa, and Seton Hall on a neutral site, but they haven’t beaten anyone on the road other than Georgia Tech and Illinois, who are both terrible. Seton Hall and MSU are the only Tourney teams they’ve beaten. But they don’t have any terrible losses, as the worst ones are losing at home to Illinois and getting housed at Minnesota.
Colorado State is remarkably 25th in the RPI behind a 17-9 record and 6-5 conference run. They are 4th in the Mountain West, but they just came off a huge win over Stevo’s New Mexico team. I really don’t understand how their RPI is so high; oh wait, they played good teams but got housed. They got stomped by Duke, Stanford, and Southern Miss, and they lost to an average UNI team. But I guess if you beat ranked teams like San Diego State and NM then you get rewarded. But those are their only two quality wins. Their schedule gets tougher also with a road trip to revisit the Aztecs, then playing UNLV, and closing out at Air Force.
Then Linardi has his first four out as UCF (beat UCONN; that’s it), South Florida (no wins over ranked opponents, and lots of bad losses), NC State (can’t beat a good team, but they did beat Campbell), and Miami (beat Duke and that’s about it; a weak ACC hurts them).
Then the next four out are Oregon (the Pac 12 sucks and their best win was Nebraska; I’m not kidding), St. Joe’s (below and worse than Xavier; no chance), VCU (they are 24-6, but have literally played and beaten no one), and Minnesota (Iowa beat you twice suckers!).
Again, Iowa killed themselves early. Losing to Campbell and getting absolutely destroyed by Clemson, Creighton, and ISU are all things that would normally keep you out easily. But Iowa has gotten better as the season has progressed, and beating 4 ranked teams should count for something. But the other selection criteria used is your last 10 games. Should Iowa win out they would be 7-3 in their last 10 (which would stay the same if they won one and lost one in the Big Ten tourney). They would also get to the 7 seed and likely play Illinois, Penn State, or Nebraska. Then you’d get the #2 seed and likely lose, but you can’t get torched! Winning a tourney game would be huge; winning two would get you in for sure.
So there you have it. I think the chances are slim to none, but where there’s a chance, we’ll talk about it here. And remember, Penn State went 16-13 last year and 9-9 in the Big Ten and got in! Now after spending all this time, watch us lose to flaming out Illinois and crush our hopes and dreams once more. Here’s to hoping that doesn’t happen, and we get to sing In Heaven There Is No Beer at about 7:00 PM Sunday evening.
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